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Elastic continuum mechanical models are widely used to compute deformations due to pressure changes in buried cavities, such as magma reservoirs. In general, analytical models are fast but can be inaccurate as they do not correctly satisfy boundary conditions for many geometries, while numerical models are slow and may require specialized expertise and software. To overcome these limitations, we trained supervised machine learning emulators (model surrogates) based on parallel partial Gaussian processes which predict the output of a finite element numerical model with high fidelity but >1,000× greater computational efficiency. The emulators are based on generalized nondimensional forms of governing equations for finite non‐dipping spheroidal cavities in elastic halfspaces. Either cavity volume change or uniform pressure change boundary conditions can be specified, and the models predict both surface displacements and cavity (pore) compressibility. Because of their computational efficiency, using the emulators as numerical model surrogates can greatly accelerate data inversion algorithms such as those employing Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The emulators also permit a comprehensive evaluation of how displacements and cavity compressibility vary with geometry and material properties, revealing the limitations of analytical models. Our open‐source emulator code can be utilized without finite element software, is suitable for a wide range of cavity geometries and depths, includes an estimate of uncertainties associated with emulation, and can be used to train new emulators for different source geometries. 

Article Published: 27 May 2024 Explosive 2018 eruptions at Kīlauea driven by a collapse-induced stomp-rocket mechanism Josh Crozier, Josef Dufek, Leif Karlstrom, Kyle R. Anderson, Ryan Cahalan, Weston Thelen, Mary Benage & Chao Liang Nature Geoscience volume 17, pages572–578 (2024)Cite this article 1357 Accesses 430 Altmetric Metricsdetails Abstract Explosive volcanic eruptions produce hazardous atmospheric plumes composed of tephra particles, hot gas and entrained air. Such eruptions are generally driven by magmatic fragmentation or steam expansion. However, an eruption mechanism outside this phreatic–magmatic spectrum was suggested by a sequence of 12 explosive eruptions in May 2018 at Kīlauea, Hawaii, that occurred during the early stages of caldera collapse and produced atmospheric plumes reaching 8 km above the vent. Here we use seismic inversions for reservoir pressure as a source condition for three-dimensional simulations of transient multiphase eruptive plume ascent through a conduit and stratified atmosphere. We compare the simulations with conduit ascent times inferred from seismic and infrasound data, and with plume heights from radar data. We find that the plumes are consistent with eruptions caused by a stomp-rocket mechanism involving the abrupt subsidence of reservoir roof rock that increased pressure in the underlying magma reservoir. In our model, the reservoir was overlain by a pocket of accumulated high-temperature magmatic gas and lithic debris, which were driven through a conduit approximately 600 m long to erupt particles at rates of around 3,000 m3 s−1. Our results reveal a distinct collapse-driven type of eruption and provide a framework for integrating diverse geophysical and atmospheric data with simulations to gain a better understanding of unsteady explosive eruptions. 

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults. 

The science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano's largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was documented in detail, yielding new insights into large caldera-rift eruptions; the geometry of a shallow magma storage-transport system and its interaction with rift zone tectonics; mechanisms of basaltic tephra-producing explosions; caldera collapse mechanics; and the dynamics of fissure eruptions and high-volume lava flows. Insights are broadly applicable to a range of volcanic systems and should reduce risk from future eruptions. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be required to fully leverage the diversity of monitoring data to address many of the most important outstanding questions. ▪ Unprecedented observations of a caldera collapse and coupled rift zone eruption yield new opportunities for advancing volcano science. ▪ Magma flow to a low-elevation rift zone vent triggered quasi-periodic step-like collapse of a summit caldera, which pressurized the magma system and sustained the eruption. ▪ Kīlauea's magmatic-tectonic system is tightly interconnected over tens of kilometers, with complex feedback mechanisms and interrelated hazards over widely varying time scales. ▪ The eruption revealed magma stored in diverse locations, volumes, and compositions, not only beneath the summit but also within the volcano's most active rift zone. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 52 is May 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance d c strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by M W 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains d c to be ≤ 10 mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick–slip derived here are commonly met in nature. 

Abstract In 2018 Kı̄lauea volcano erupted a decade's worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kı̄lauea re‐erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ∼20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ∼17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, implies excess pressure at the eruption end of only ∼1 MPa. Given the new vent elevation, ∼11–12 MPa pressure increase was required to bring magma to the surface in December 2020. Analysis of Global Positioning System data between 8/2018 and 12/2020 shows there was a 73% probability that this condition was met at the onset of the 2020 eruption. Given a plausible range of possible vent elevations, there was a 40%–88% probability of sufficient pressure to bring magma to the surface 100 days before the eruption.